The Faculty of Forestry & Environmental Stewardship JEDI team is delighted to host the KAIROS Blanket Exercise, facilitated by Moontide Reconciliation, an official KAIROS team.
The Blanket Exercise is an experiential learning opportunity to immerse yourself in 400 years of Canadian colonial history told from the perspective of Indigenous peoples. Participants have shared that they found the experience deeply moving, essential to understanding Canadian history and highly recommended.
Wear: Appropriate clothing and footwear for an open field, if sunny bring a hat and sunscreen. Shade is limited.
Dr. Elizabeth Wolkovich, associate professor in UBC Forestry & Environmental Stewardship’s Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, co-organizes the International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition – a global contest that challenges scientists, students and citizen forecasters to predict exactly when cherry trees will reach peak bloom. Now in its fifth year, the competition has just closed its entry period, with hundreds of forecasters placing their bets. We asked her why a flower is one of science’s most useful climate tools.
The competition just closed. What are forecasters predicting?
Hundreds of scientists, students, and citizen forecasters from around the world have placed their bets—and the collective consensus puts Vancouver’s peak bloom around March 30.
Contestants submitted predictions across five cities: Vancouver, Washington, D.C., New York City, Kyoto and Liestal-Weideli in Switzerland. All forecasts are now locked, and nature has the final say. We won’t know who’s right until the blossoms open.
Cherry blossoms outside the Forest Sciences Centre. Credit: UBC
Why is predicting cherry blossom peak so difficult?
Cherry trees run on a precise biological clock tied to temperature. Our current thinking is that they need a certain number of cold winter days to “reset,” followed by warming spring temperatures to trigger flowering. If correct, then warmer winters might disrupt this balance, making timing harder to call. Once blossoms open, a single storm can knock petals off in hours, so the peak bloom window is brief.
Why do cherry blossoms seem to be blooming earlier and earlier every year?
We know temperate plants flower in the spring in response to warming, but each species needs a different amount. If you think of it as a bucket that needs to be filled with warmth, then cherry trees have a smaller bucket and when it is full, they flower – later species have bigger buckets. With global warming, the whole year is warmer so the buckets all fill faster and this is most obvious for the earliest (smallest bucket) species.
The big question is how winters affect this bucket. We have good evidence that many plants, including cherry trees, have a pre-spring bucket (chilling) that they fill with cool temperatures. Enough cool temperatures tell them that winter is over. A big concern is that warmer winters means the first bucket doesn’t fill. If that’s the case it could have sweeping consequences and it’s one of the reasons we started the competition.
What does that tell us about the bigger picture?
Cherry blossoms are one of the most visible and beloved examples of a much broader pattern. Across the Northern Hemisphere, the timing of spring—when plants leaf out, when insects emerge, when birds migrate—has been shifting forward. And it isn’t just about the flowers. Early flowering signals when other trees will leaf out, affecting forest carbon storage and ecosystem function. Cherry blossoms are a window into changes that touch every part of the natural world.
What have scientists learned from previous years of the competition?
Scientists have learned a lot by comparing the different forecasting methods people submit. Some predictions come from straightforward statistics, while others use complex machine‑learning models. Looking at how each one performs across different cities helps researchers see which ideas about tree biology still work—and which ones need updating.
Cherry blossoms outside the Robert H. Lee Alumni Centre. Credit: UBC
Why open this to the public rather than just scientists?
Engaging people in predicting bloom times gets more of us talking about climate change and its effects. Contest results, combined with scientific research, offer a collaborative approach to improve forecasting. Citizen scientists bring real value and curiosity to problems that matter.
Why does Vancouver make such a good place to watch this?
The city has 40,000 cherry trees across more than 40 species, some flowering weeks apart, stretching the season. That variety makes it a rich place to study bloom timing. For a city whose identity is tied to its blossoms, these changes are increasingly hard to ignore.
Winners will be announced once the trees bloom. For predictions and results, visit competition.statistics.gmu.edu.
Media contact Charlotte Fisher Marketing & Media Relations Strategist UBC Forestry & Environmental Stewardship charlotte.fisher@ubc.ca
Canadian scientists have developed a genomic test that traces the Asian spongy moth to its origin, helping prevent new infestations.
Invasive species cost Canada billions of dollars each year. Now, a team led by UBC Forestry & Environmental Stewardship (FES) researchers has developed a new genomic test that can trace the Asian spongy moth—one of the biggest threats to North America’s forests—back to its source, giving officials a better chance of stopping infestations before they spread.
SpongySeq is a DNA analysis tool designed to detect the Asian spongy moth, an invasive insect capable of defoliating entire forests within weeks. Unlike the European spongy moth, which has been established in North America for more than a century and spreads slowly because its females cannot fly, the Asian variety can travel long distances, feeds on a far wider range of trees—including conifers—and remains a high-risk invader with no strong natural controls.
“Spongy moths often hitchhike on ships by laying egg masses on hulls and cargo, and they are typically detected when vessels arrive and undergo inspection at the port,” said researcher Dr. Richard Hamelin, professor in the Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences. “Once established, they’re nearly impossible to eradicate. Preventing new invasions is the most effective way to protect our forests.”
Dr. Richard Hamelin in his lab at the Forest Sciences Centre. Credit: UBC.
DNA ‘passport’ reveals source of species
In collaboration with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Natural Resources Canada and Université Laval, Dr. Hamelin’s team created a tool that works like a “genomic passport,” analyzing 283 specific DNA markers at once—taken from an egg, wing or antenna—to identify a moth’s geographic origin with 97-per-cent accuracy.
Lead author Dr. Sandrine Picq put the tool into use in the real world, testing egg masses intercepted by U.S. port officials and tracing their origins to Japan, eastern Russia, northern China and South Korea.
“These insights will help regulatory agencies understand invasion pathways and focus inspection efforts where they are most needed,” said Dr. Picq, a researcher at Natural Resources Canada.
Why prevention matters
“Invasive species cost billions of dollars annually in lost ecosystem services, reduced resource sector productivity and management efforts. Preventing an outbreak avoids huge costs in phytosanitary work, loss of trade and market access, tree removal and replacement,” said Brittany Day of the Plant Research & Strategies team at the Canadian Food inspection Agency, where scientists plan to integrate this new tool into their spongy moth diagnostic testing program.
The device itself currently requires specialized sequencing equipment found in laboratories. Researchers eventually aim to adapt SpongySeq for field use so inspectors can identify moth origins in real time at ports and border checkpoints. The same genomic approach could be adapted to track other invasive species.
The research, part of the BioSurveillance of Alien Forest Enemies (BioSAFE) project, was published in BMC Genomics and supported by grants from Genome Canada, Genome BC, Genome Quebec and Genomics Research and Development Initiative (GRDI).
Research Assistant – University of British Columbia
I have been working on experimental research related to super-black wood, contributing to the investigation of its material properties and conducting CF plasma treatment experiments on wood surfaces. During this work term, I gained hands-on experience with laboratory research, including material preparation, experimental testing, and data analysis, which strengthened my understanding of the research process in an academic setting.
This co-op experience allowed me to apply theoretical knowledge to practical research problems and clarified my interest in pursuing a research-oriented career.
For my second continuous term of co-op, I have continued working as a student viticulturist for Arterra Wines Canada. While my first term was focused on field work in the vineyards, my second term has consisted of more logistical support as harvest approached and is continuing. One of my primary tasks before and continuously throughout harvest has been maturity sampling. I go to various blocks of grape varieties, sample around thirty bunches, press the grapes into juice, and then test the juice to find their percent sugar content (also known as brix). By identifying the brix values of the grapes, the winemakers can then determine the ideal time to harvest the grapes.
Alongside maturity sampling, I have been working in what is known here as the “harvest shack” to help coordinate company truck drivers who are going out to pick up grapes and then bring them in. The harvest operation is all hands on deck at the company, as we are harvesting around 5,500 metric tonnes of grapes to process into wine. This co-op term has allowed me to improve my communication skills, my ability to organize and manage complex spreadsheets, and learn about all of the effort that goes into a successful large-scale agricultural operation.
This work term, I have been working with the Canadian National Forestry Inventory. I am a part of the MAGPlot team, which aims to compile and standardize forestry data from across the country. Their database includes thousands of ground plots and millions of recorded trees.
I have learned a lot about programs such as Excel, R Studio, and GitHub, and also a lot about sampling design. I would not have been able to get this opportunity without the co-op program. I am so glad to be gaining relevant experience in my field and making important connections.
Land One participants register in a selection of first-year courses together as a cohort of 50 – 60 students, allowing for a more personalized connection with instructors. Students have access to a designated classroom and study space, and learn through group work, field trips and various hands-on activities, all of which create a stronger social and learning community.
If you’re looking for an immersive first-year experience and the opportunity to be part of a smaller cohort, join the Land One team on either April 16, 2026, at 4 PM (PST) or May 6, 2026, at 4 PM (PST) for online information sessions. Learn more about the program, hear from current Land One students, and get a chance to ask questions.
Dr. Jennifer Grenz and PhD student Virginia Oeggerli. Credit: Jennifer Grenz
A UBC FES study with St’át’imc Nation communities finds invasive grasses are the sleeper threat on B.C.’s post-fire landscape—and the window to stop them is narrow
After a wildfire, the flames may fade, but the danger does not. A new study by UBC Forestry & Environmental Stewardship researchers reveals that burned landscapes remain vulnerable for years, with large areas still bare and at risk of invasion by fast-growing, fire-prone grasses.
The research, one of the largest vegetation trajectory studies in the world, monitored landscapes two years after major wildfires in interior B.C. While some native plants returned, recovery was slower and more fragile than expected.
One of the most pressing concerns is invasive grasses, which germinate early in spring, dry out during the hottest months, and act as dry runways that spread flames at highway speed—a dynamic that contributed to the 2023 Lahaina fire in Maui and is increasingly likely in B.C.’s Interior.
“Areas that looked like post-apocalyptic ground right after the fire are now blanketed in cheatgrass. Once you can see the invasion, the opportunity for rapid response may already be gone,” said Dr. Jennifer Grenz, senior author and assistant professor in the Department of Forest Resources Management and a member of Lytton First Nation.
Published in Fire Ecology, the study examined vegetation recovery two years after the 46,000-hectare McKay Creek wildfire near Lillooet, conducted in partnership with six Northern St’át’imc communities on whose territory the fire burned. It was made possible by years of pre-fire invasive plant monitoring collected by the Lillooet Regional Invasive Species Society in collaboration with the BC Provincial Invasive Plant Program and local Indigenous communities—rare baseline data that allowed the team to test long-held assumptions about post-fire invasion.
Flames erupting during McKay Creek wildfire. Credit: Jennifer Grenz.
Elevation plays a critical role in recovery
The analysis showed a clear elevation trend in post-fire plant recovery. At lower elevations, where conditions are hotter, drier and more accessible to human activity, drought-tolerant invasive species quickly gain a foothold. Heavy traffic from hikers, ATVs, hunters and road maintenance equipment continually introduces new seeds, giving invaders like cheatgrass little competition in the valley bottoms.
Moving upslope, cooler temperatures and lingering moisture create less favourable conditions for invasive species. Here, native shrubs are beginning to regenerate, slowing the advance of non-native plants. Recovery is still slow, but native vegetation is re‑emerging where roots survived the fire.
“In a new era of mega-fires, understanding where and how vegetation recovers could determine the intensity of the next wildfire,” said Dr. Grenz.
Moonscape one year after McKay Creek wildfire. Credit: Jennifer Grenz.
Controlling invasive plants
With post-fire restoration resources limited, the researchers highlight three actions that could substantially reduce risk: vehicle and boot washing stations at fire access points to slow seed spread; targeted seeding or planting of native species along roads and high-risk corridors; and early herbicide treatment of small infestations before they expand.
The team plans to continue tracking recovery trends to help communities and land managers make informed decisions.
“A landscape left to invasive grasses after one fire becomes more likely to burn again,” said Virginia Oeggerli, a PhD student in Dr. Grenz’s lab who led the study. “Recovery is part of prevention.”
Join author and UBC Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Stewardship Professor Suzanne Simard for the launch of her highly anticipated new book, When the Forest Breathes, the follow-up to her bestselling Finding the Mother Tree. This immersive evening combines performance and conversation to explore a pressing question: how can we reimagine our relationship with forests, and with one another, in a time of ecological urgency?
The program opens with T. Patrick Carrabré’s Mother Tree, presented in collaboration with Early Music Vancouver. Performed by the Pacific Baroque Orchestra and soprano Mireille Asselin, the work brings Simard’s groundbreaking ideas about forest networks to life through music.
Next, experience Fungi Kingdom Dance, created by Rande Cook, Kwakwaka’wakw artist and hereditary chief of the Ma’amtagila people, who will also participate in the onstage conversation later in the evening.
The evening concludes with a live panel moderated by CBC’s What on Earth host Laura Lynch, featuring Suzanne Simard; Cree author and Governor General’s Literary Award winner Michelle Good (joining virtually), author of Five Little Indians; Christopher Rusnak, KC, legal scholar and Rights of Nature advocate; and Dr. Teresa Ryan, UBC Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Stewardship scholar. Together, they will explore the future of forests and our shared responsibility to the living world.
The Faculty of Forestry & Environmental Stewardship congratulates Dr. Kira Hoffman, a 2026 National Geographic 33 Honoree, for her groundbreaking work as a fire ecologist studying wildfire behavior, Indigenous-led fire stewardship, and resilience in northwest British Columbia.
About the National Geographic 33
National Geographic 33 is a program inspired by the 33 founders of the National Geographic Society in 1888. It recognizes 33 individuals from around the world who are driving positive change through science, conservation, innovation, and storytelling, highlighting modern-day trailblazers whose work inspires solutions to global challenges.
About Dr. Kira Hoffman
Dr. Kira Hoffman is a fire ecologist studying wildfire behavior and Indigenous-led fire stewardship. Through her postdoctoral fellowship at the University of British Columbia and the Centre for Wildfire Coexistence, she examines historic fire activity and wildfire resilience in northwest British Columbia. Her research on the ecological legacies of cultural burning helps inform contemporary forest management by bringing together Indigenous knowledge and western science.
“Fire has this way of bringing us together. Sometimes that’s when it’s a disaster— but it can also be a healthy thing, and that brings us together too.” – Dr. Kira Hoffman
